Lonta Home-Service Demand Study — 2023 AHS, v1.0¶

Context & Methods¶

Original secondary analysis of the pinned DataLumos V2 archival copy, with Census/HUD definitions and 183 primary-workbook control comparisons. Direct Census-origin binary equality is not asserted. Canonical: https://lonta.io/research/home-service-demand/. Prepared with Codex, without original client observations or independent/human-review claims.

All occupied owner homes, including no-project homes; preceding 24 months at the 2023 interview. Professional means most work outside household, not verified paid invoices. Reported nominal costs include known zero and exclude unknown amounts. Pointwise 90% normal intervals use 160 Fay BRR replicates; no multiplicity correction. IQRs describe distribution spread, not uncertainty. Frozen bins/model are in the original plan.

Data¶

Download the cited archive yourself. Its household/project CSV hashes are checked; no raw rows or IDs are displayed or redistributed.

{
  "comparisons": 183,
  "passed": 183,
  "failed": []
}

Owner housing-unit rows: 28192 | Source project rows: 44689
Primary controls: 183 / 183 passed

Results¶

All eight prespecified categories appear. Shares have separate count/spending denominators; cost ranges are not current quotes.

category homes_per1000 homes_lower90 homes_upper90
0 Insulation 20.13 18.37 21.89
1 Interior water pipes 26.44 24.46 28.41
2 Plumbing fixtures 60.01 57.16 62.87
3 Electrical wiring / panels 52.08 49.26 54.90
4 Central A/C 69.27 66.43 72.12
5 Built-in heating 59.65 57.12 62.18
6 Septic tanks 5.45 4.61 6.29
7 Water heaters 59.28 56.86 61.71
category professional_project_pct professional_spending_pct difference_pp difference_lower90 difference_upper90
0 Insulation 57.19 79.06 21.87 18.16 25.58
1 Interior water pipes 63.98 89.35 25.37 22.04 28.70
2 Plumbing fixtures 52.55 74.83 22.27 19.43 25.11
3 Electrical wiring / panels 68.58 89.79 21.21 18.97 23.45
4 Central A/C 88.32 91.20 2.88 1.91 3.85
5 Built-in heating 86.49 92.02 5.54 3.96 7.11
6 Septic tanks 86.39 89.95 3.56 -4.08 11.20
7 Water heaters 65.53 80.67 15.14 13.61 16.67
category professional_known_cost_rows cost_q1 cost_median cost_q3 cost_median_lower90 cost_median_upper90
0 Insulation 588 1000.0 2000.0 3500.0 1649.14 2350.86
1 Interior water pipes 785 500.0 1600.0 4000.0 1294.48 1905.52
2 Plumbing fixtures 1734 400.0 860.0 2000.0 778.50 941.50
3 Electrical wiring / panels 1497 550.0 1500.0 3400.0 1431.19 1568.81
4 Central A/C 2050 4000.0 6500.0 9500.0 5873.12 7126.88
5 Built-in heating 1764 2000.0 4500.0 7000.0 4395.97 4604.03
6 Septic tanks 126 2000.0 4500.0 9800.0 3125.29 5874.71
7 Water heaters 1847 800.0 1300.0 2000.0 1206.23 1393.77

Housing vintage¶

Raw group rates and descriptive income/division-adjusted associations. Suppressed cells remain unknown, not zero. Equipment stock, housing type and exposure time are not controlled. These are not individual predictions or causal effects.

category vintage estimate lower upper suppressed
0 Insulation pre_1980 25.08 22.67 27.49 False
1 Insulation 1980_1999 18.44 15.74 21.15 False
2 Insulation 2000_or_later 12.34 9.54 15.14 False
3 Interior water pipes pre_1980 33.33 30.25 36.41 False
4 Interior water pipes 1980_1999 26.70 23.27 30.12 False
5 Interior water pipes 2000_or_later 12.88 10.31 15.45 False
6 Plumbing fixtures pre_1980 66.76 62.96 70.56 False
7 Plumbing fixtures 1980_1999 60.56 55.26 65.86 False
8 Plumbing fixtures 2000_or_later 46.44 41.50 51.39 False
9 Electrical wiring / panels pre_1980 62.29 58.37 66.21 False
10 Electrical wiring / panels 1980_1999 50.48 45.34 55.61 False
11 Electrical wiring / panels 2000_or_later 34.06 29.55 38.57 False
12 Central A/C pre_1980 56.88 53.66 60.09 False
13 Central A/C 1980_1999 90.00 83.38 96.62 False
14 Central A/C 2000_or_later 71.72 65.95 77.49 False
15 Built-in heating pre_1980 60.04 56.64 63.43 False
16 Built-in heating 1980_1999 69.31 63.67 74.95 False
17 Built-in heating 2000_or_later 48.93 44.46 53.40 False
18 Septic tanks pre_1980 6.75 5.42 8.07 False
19 Septic tanks 1980_1999 5.08 3.56 6.61 False
20 Septic tanks 2000_or_later NaN NaN NaN True
21 Water heaters pre_1980 61.39 57.73 65.04 False
22 Water heaters 1980_1999 61.75 56.02 67.48 False
23 Water heaters 2000_or_later 52.68 47.72 57.64 False
category vintage estimate lower upper suppressed
0 Insulation 1980_1999 -7.44 -10.69 -4.19 False
1 Insulation 2000_or_later -15.11 -18.57 -11.66 False
2 Interior water pipes 1980_1999 -8.31 -12.43 -4.20 False
3 Interior water pipes 2000_or_later -23.59 -27.99 -19.20 False
4 Plumbing fixtures 1980_1999 -7.77 -14.16 -1.38 False
5 Plumbing fixtures 2000_or_later -24.14 -29.89 -18.39 False
6 Electrical wiring / panels 1980_1999 -14.14 -19.69 -8.58 False
7 Electrical wiring / panels 2000_or_later -34.64 -41.38 -27.90 False
8 Central A/C 1980_1999 27.14 20.06 34.21 False
9 Central A/C 2000_or_later 3.01 -3.79 9.80 False
10 Built-in heating 1980_1999 11.30 4.64 17.96 False
11 Built-in heating 2000_or_later -10.28 -16.33 -4.23 False
12 Septic tanks 1980_1999 -1.83 -3.69 0.03 False
13 Septic tanks 2000_or_later NaN NaN NaN True
14 Water heaters 1980_1999 -1.58 -8.67 5.50 False
15 Water heaters 2000_or_later -13.34 -20.51 -6.18 False

Reusable figures¶

The same population and window travel with each figure. Numerical tables above provide an accessible reading of the charts.

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Takeaways¶

Project count, reported spending and household participation answer different questions. House age alone is not a validated marketing rule; the observed pattern depends on service. Use the service-mix worksheet to define a local hypothesis and collect serviceable, quoted, accepted, completed and paid outcomes separately. A national median is not your margin or advertising ceiling. Cite the dated survey, actual archival edition, Lonta calculation and its limitations whenever reusing a result.