Two $30 HVAC leads. Same ticket. One leaves half the money.

TL;DR

• An HVAC lead cost ceiling should start with collected contribution: the ticket minus the variable costs of doing the work, the money you need to retain, and the costs of inquiries that never become paid work.
• Multiply the amount available per collected job by the share of acquired leads that become collected jobs. Then subtract unsuccessful-visit costs and additional acquisition fees per lead.
• In the invented example below, the same $420 ticket supports a $31.50 lead near the shop and an $18 lead farther away. The difference is dispatch cost.
• Use the free lead cost calculator with your own numbers. Its defaults are examples, not market benchmarks or bidding targets.

What can a $30 lead leave after the truck returns?

Imagine two service areas. In each, you buy 100 leads at $30, book 60 appointments, and complete and collect 30 jobs. Each collected job has a $420 ticket.

Both areas report a $30 cost per lead, a 60% booking rate, and a $100 ad cost per collected job. A lead report, and even a report that reaches sold jobs, could make them look equally attractive.

Now put the trucks back into the calculation. In the near area, travel and expected callback costs average $35 per collected job. In the farther area, they average $80. The additional $45 comes out of every collected job even though it never appears in the ad platform's cost column.

This is an invented calculation, not an account we run or an estimate of what contractors normally pay. It shows why the sold-jobs and CRM reporting hub needs the job economics beside the job count.

An HVAC lead cost calculation that includes failed visits

Use the same assumptions in both areas: $145 of direct job costs per collected job, plus $40 for each of the 30 booked visits that produces no collected work. Add $300 in acquisition fees beyond the advertising bill for the group of 100 leads.

Direct costs here include the variable labor and parts used on a successful job. Travel and expected callbacks sit in a separate line. If your job-cost report already includes them, remove them from the extra-cost line. Counting the same wage twice makes the ceiling artificially low.

The headline's “half the money” refers to that final contribution toward overhead and profit. It does not mean the shop's net profit is $2,700 or $1,350. Rent, office salaries and other fixed costs still need to be paid.

If the shop needs $85 per collected job toward those costs and profit, the near area clears the requirement by $5 per job. The farther area misses it by $40. More leads with the same economics increase the shortfall rather than repair it.

The unsuccessful-visit line includes booked appointments that never produce collected work. Set it from your records: diagnostic work, drive time, refunds and callbacks can differ by area. Do not assume every unsold estimate costs $40 just because this example does.

How much can you afford to pay per lead?

Define a lead once. Here it is a purchased, deduplicated inquiry, including inquiries you could not book. The completion rate must use that same denominator. A sales rate calculated only from qualified estimates is too generous if the advertising bill also includes unanswered calls and unsuitable inquiries.

The model is:

Lead ceiling = booking rate × collected-job rate among bookings × (collected ticket − direct job costs − extra travel/callback costs − required retained amount) − unsuccessful-visit cost per acquired lead − additional acquisition fees per acquired lead

For the near area:

0.60 × 0.50 × ($420 − $145 − $35 − $85) − $12 − $3 = $31.50

For the farther area:

0.60 × 0.50 × ($420 − $145 − $80 − $85) − $12 − $3 = $18.00

The $12 unsuccessful-visit cost per lead is $1,200 divided by all 100 acquired leads. The $3 fee is $300 divided by the same 100. Both are costs you incur in addition to the advertising cost you are solving for.

This is a planning ceiling under these assumptions. It is not a target to enter directly into Google Ads. A platform conversion may be a call or a form submission: Google's conversion measurement guide, checked October 8, 2026, describes actions an advertiser defines. Match that action to the denominator in your own calculation before comparing the platform's reported cost with your ceiling.

Why not just use average ticket and close rate?

The simplified calculation silently gives unsuccessful appointments no cost and leaves no money for overhead. It also assumes the average ticket represents the next job you buy.

A replacement-heavy month can give an account a high average ticket even when its next fifty leads are mostly small repairs. Split repair, replacement and maintenance before using an average. Use collected amounts after known refunds, not the quoted value of estimates still awaiting approval.

Keep the near and far service areas separate as well. An extra half-hour per trip can matter even when the technician's payroll does not change this week. On an empty board, that time has one operational effect. On a full board, it may replace another job. The calculator includes cash costs you enter; it does not estimate the value of the job you displaced.

For the map behind the calculation, see Google Ads location targeting for a service area. For why the booking step matters, see HVAC booking rate.

What changes the result fastest?

Try the near-area example with the collected-job rate among bookings falling from 50% to 40%. Leave the other per-lead costs unchanged to isolate that assumption. The lead ceiling becomes $22.20: 0.60 × 0.40 × $155, minus $15.

In practice, a lower collected-job rate can also increase the cost of unsuccessful visits. If it does, revise that line too. A sensitivity calculation with one fixed cost is a comparison of assumptions, not a forecast of the whole operation.

Now remove the $85 retained amount. The apparent ceiling jumps to $57. That extra $25.50 per lead is the expected contribution the shop needed to keep: 30% of $85. It has not become new profit. The calculation has simply stopped reserving it.

Use your bookkeeper's job-cost definitions consistently. If a fixed monthly management fee is being allocated to this group, label the allocation and use a planned volume. As volume changes, its per-lead allocation changes too; it is not necessarily an extra cash cost of buying one more lead.

What this doesn't cover

• Future customer value. Maintenance renewals and later replacements may justify a different ceiling, but this model includes only the current collected job.
• Fixed-cost accounting or taxes. The retained amount is your input, not a complete model of the business.
• Incrementality. A collected job attributed to advertising may have happened through another route without the ad.
• Capacity and job displacement. A full dispatch board needs a comparison with the work the new job would replace.
• A market price. These numbers are examples. Actual auction prices and purchased-lead prices may exceed what your operation can support.

Do this in your account

1. Pick one job type, one service area and a defined group of acquired leads. Follow them to a fixed collection cutoff.
2. Count every acquired lead, every booking, and every completed, collected job. Keep open estimates separate.
3. Read collected ticket and direct variable costs from those jobs. Separate extra travel and callbacks only if they are not already included.
4. Add the costs of visits that produced no collected work, divided by all acquired leads.
5. Set the amount each collected job must retain. Record what that amount is intended to cover.
6. Open the calculator and copy the calculation worksheet. Reduce the collected-job rate and raise travel cost to see where the decision changes.

Then compare the ceiling with what you actually pay. If it misses, the next question may be the map, the booking process or the service offer. The HVAC marketing page explains how these decisions fit into separate repair and replacement campaigns.

FAQ

Is the lead ceiling the same as break-even cost per lead? Only if the retained amount is zero and every relevant cost is included. With an $85 reserve, this model solves for the ad cost that leaves that amount per collected job under the stated assumptions.

Can the lead ceiling be negative? Yes. It means the assumed jobs cannot cover the entered non-advertising costs and retained amount even with free leads. Check the inputs and operation before increasing advertising.

Should I include salaries? Include variable labor in the direct job cost and avoid counting it again in travel. Use the retained amount for the contribution you need toward fixed overhead and profit. Apply the same definitions across the areas you compare.

Why include leads that never book? You paid to acquire them. Leaving them out of the denominator overstates the probability that the next purchased lead becomes collected work.

Sources

Checked October 8, 2026. All dollar amounts are invented. The dispatch calculation is our planning model; Google does not supply or endorse the ceiling.

• Google Ads Help: About conversion measurement, for the distinction between a configured conversion action and a collected job.